For example, since we are in Zhuhai, the city for lovers, the one child policy of China which is aimed limit population growth is unintentionally creating all imbalances between young men and young women. One estimate is there may soon be as many as 30,000,000 more man than women in China because of the preference for that one child to be a boy. That means there may be 30,000,000 frustrated men who may not have the opportunities to enjoy the magic of this beautiful city. An unintended consequence for sure.
I raise this issue here today because our PHS community is now reaching a similar problem or opportunity, depending on how you see it, of Zhuhai and those 30,000,000 young men.
The national policies, of say, China, Taiwan and Japan, where we have most of our PHS community are creating telecommunication ECO systems of 2.5G, 3G and WiMax, and in the future 4G, however that will be defined.
We have created 100,000,000 PHS subscribers - our "pearls" in the sea of 1,000,000,000 mobile subscribers. Most of the PHS subscribers were primarily created as a result of the economy of PHS. However, many of them, indeed maybe even most of them, have enjoyed improvement in their own personal economic situation where they will need to search elsewhere to find a solution to fill their love for communication... In short, they could leave our community and marry into the 2.5G or 3G community.
Of course, there will still be millions of potential customers where PHS will continue to fit their needs, but for those millions that don't, we will lose them as they go elsewhere. The eventual end of this story - the death of PHS - should be evident to us all. The end may take 10 years or 20 years unless we find an answer, soon.
To be sure, we are trying to fill that Gap. FiTel in Taiwan has the dual mode PHS/GSM phone. Our new, developing standard for Next Generation PHS in Japan, in trials, is getting data speeds far superior to those of 3G. But are these too little, too late? Will governments facilitate these solutions with favorable policies; will operators find them economically attractive for investment in both infrastructure and terminal devices? Or, is our destiny to eventually fade into history? Think about it.
Of course, we may not care as an industry because many of us already have business in these other areas of 2G, or 3G, or WiMax. Our business will shift with the demand. Economic reality and the demand of the marketplace will decide. We have protected ourselves. But many of our members are smaller companies with limited resources to compete against the big guys and they will have to make their own strategic decisions on what is next on their roadmap.
Why not get a group of smart people from among our members to meet in a beautiful place like Zhuhai and think about this and, at the next general meeting, give us the benefit of their thinking, no matter how crazy it may be...Let's start the conversation through what is called "out of the box" thinking.
For example, WiFi - it has moved from access points to embedded in computer devices to embedded in 2.5G phones, and 3G phones and will be in WiMax Devices as well. What about Bluetooth, or ultra-wideband or GPS or FM Radio or Portable MP3 Players or gaming devices or...?... Can these migrate into PHS devices or can PHS migrate into them?
Why not look at ways to take what is happening elsewhere and morph our fantastic PHS technology with them. We have wide operator coverage in Taiwan, Japan, and China... We just need the innovative thinking. Think about it... Think about it... And let's do that thinking now. Well, I regret that I am not with you during this general meeting in Zhuhai... But when you walk around the magic of this city, think of those 30,000,000 young men and those 100,000,000 PHS subscribers and how do we seize an opportunity out of an unintended consequence. Thank you!
SAM
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